Long-run causal nexus between share price and dividend

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper was to examine the long-run causal relations between share price and dividend in the Indian market. Design/methodology/approach – Panel vector error correction model is estimated to examine the long-run causal relations between share price and dividend. Prior to this, panel unit root tests and panel cointegration tests are carried out to test the unit root properties of the data and test for the existence of long-run cointegrating relationship between the variables, respectively. Findings – The results of empirical investigation reveal that there exists bi-directional long-run causality between share price and dividends. Research limitations/implications – For the chosen sample, data on share price are available only for limited years. This limits the time dimension of the sample. Hence, in the future, the analysis can be extended to cover longer time series. Practical implications – The interplay between share prices and dividends needs to be given due consideration by firms while framing their policies. A change in dividend policy would have an effect on the market value of the firm; hence, firms need to frame dividend policy in such a way that it would enhance their market value. Similarly, investors need to take into consideration the influence of share prices and dividends on each other. While making investment decisions, they need to consider the dividend history of shares, as better dividends would lead to better share prices. Originality/value – To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first attempt in the Indian market to examine the long-run causal relations between share price and dividend. The results of this study would be helpful to the investors in taking wise investment decisions. It would also enable firms in formulating appropriate dividend policies.