Long range stochastic planning of generation considering overdesign

Abstract

This paper presents a new model for the optimal expansion planning of generation facilities in Power Systems under uncertainties of demand forecasts and generator outages. The objective is to find an expansion strategy requiring minimum present worth of revenue requirements so that electric power can be supplied to consumers at a reasonably low price with high degree of reliability. System utility is evaluated in terms of its capacity to meet demand requirements under uncertain conditions. The design also aims at reducing the over design of the system which requires a large capital outlay. A method based on the preference order dynamic programming is presented to determine the long-range optimal expansion strategy. This avoids the drawbacks of the conventional dynamic programming methods and requires lesser number of alternatives to be considered for selection of the optimal expansion policy.