Abstract
Abstract Interannual variations in Beaufort Sea summer ice conditions influence a wide range of socioeconomic activities, including merchant shipping in the Beaufort Sea and subsistence lifestyles on the Alaskan North Slope. Each year, the National Ice Center quantifies Beaufort Sea summer ice conditions based on the Barnett severity index (BSI), which is based on distances from Point Barrow, Alaska, to the sea ice edge, as well as characteristics of the shipping season from Prudhoe Bay to the Bering Sea. Long-range forecasts (monthly to seasonal) of the BSI would be valuable for the above-mentioned users, provided that the forecasts are communicated effectively and used properly. Utilizing mean monthly sea ice and atmospheric data from 1979 through 2000, multiple linear regression models are developed here to forecast the BSI at monthly intervals from October of the previous year through to July of the prediction year. The final models retain between three and five variables, with decreased multiyear sea...
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