Long-Range Integrated Development Analysis: The Cuban Isla de la Juventud Study Case

Ernesto Alberto Alvarez,Ariel Santos Fuentefría,Miriam Lourdes Filgueiras Sainz De Rozas,Ramsés Arcila Padura,Jyrki Luukkanen,Mika Korkeakoski

doi:10.3390/en14102865

Ernesto Alberto Alvarez, Ariel Santos Fuentefría + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en14102865

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Abstract

The use of renewable energy sources (RES) has increased exponentially worldwide, as an alternative to the indiscriminate use of fossil fuels and to mitigate their effects on the environment. Cuba is not lagging behind in this development since the government’s plan until 2030 includes the contribution of renewable sources as a fundamental component in the national energy mix. This paper models possible scenarios based on 2019 statistics for achieving a 25% and 100% penetration of renewable sources by 2030 in the Isla de la Juventud’s (an island south of the main island of Cuba) electrical power system (EPS). This modeling is carried out utilizing and open source Excel-based accounting framework Long-range Integrated Development Analysis (LINDA). For this purpose, international and national trends in the use and development of renewable energy sources and the influence of the characteristics of each renewable source (wind, solar, biodiesel, battery storage) were analyzed. The analysis of Isla de la Juventud’s electrical power system was based on the characteristics of its energy mix, the possibilities of renewable energy penetration and the current and future energy demand by sector. Based on the analysis, two probable scenarios were modeled with LINDA model: a 25% renewable energy-based scenario (RENES) and a 100% renewables-based scenario (MAXRES). Results from RENES and MAXRES scenarios show high penetration of renewable energy sources in electricity generation is theoretically possible with the abundance of renewable energy resources, and thus it is possible for Cuba to move towards 100% renewable energy mix. However, the choices regarding the best fit energy mix need to be carefully analyzed in order to design a least cost system that answers the needs of the future demand.

Highlights

Climate change is widely considered as the greatest challenge facing humanity and growing emissions, especially from the energy sector, are the main drivers of global climate change [1]
The electrical system of Isla de la Juventud has important similarities with the electrical system of Cuba and the economic, social and energy related data used by the model allowed analysis of different factors to showcase results that serve as an important evidence in the context of Cuba
Geographical, economic and social conditions make Isla de la Juventud an ideal test scenario for Cuba, and the results of this work will help to understand the path that must be followed to achieve a power system with 100% of generation based on renewable energy, obtain maximum reduction on the use of fossil fuel and greenhouse gas emissions

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is widely considered as the greatest challenge facing humanity and growing emissions, especially from the energy sector, are the main drivers of global climate change [1]. The use of renewable energy sources globally has grown dramatically, the continued reliance on fossil fuels has resulted in emission increase of nearly 2% to 33.1 Gtons of CO2 in 2018 [1]. In view of these facts, specialists and governments around the world have become increasingly aware of the importance of addressing climate change through the use of renewable energy sources (RES) and efficient energy management. According to the United Nations, in 2018 11% of the world’s population has no access to electricity [3]. Achieving a universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all is one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations. [5]

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