Abstract
Although the economic consequences of epidemic outbreaks to affected areas are often well documented, little is known about how these might carry over into the economies of unaffected regions. In the absence of direct pathogen transmission, global trade is one mechanism through which geographically distant epidemics could reverberate to unaffected countries. This study explores the link between global public health events and U.S. economic outcomes by evaluating the role of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak in U.S. exports and exports‐supported U.S. jobs, 2005–2016. Estimates were obtained using difference‐in‐differences models where sub‐Saharan Africa countries were assigned to treatment and comparison groups based on their Ebola transmission status, with controls for observed and unobserved time‐variant factors that may independently influence trends in trade. Multiple model specification checks were performed to ensure analytic robustness. The year of peak transmission, 2014, was estimated to result in $1.08 billion relative reduction in U.S. merchandise exports to Ebola‐affected countries, whereas estimated losses in exports‐supported U.S. jobs exceeded 1,200 in 2014 and 11,000 in 2015. These findings suggest that remote disruptions in health security might play a role in U.S. economic indicators, demonstrating the interconnectedness between global health and aspects of the global economy and informing the relevance of health security efforts.
Highlights
Ebola virus disease, a rare but deadly hemorrhagic fever, has long captured the popular imagination as a broad symbol of a health threat that can defy containment
The findings demonstrate the interconnectedness of a world where even remote public health events cannot be considered in isolation, informing the relevance of global health security efforts
This study suggests that U.S exports and U.S exports‐supported jobs were adversely affected by the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa
Summary
A rare but deadly hemorrhagic fever, has long captured the popular imagination as a broad symbol of a health threat that can defy containment. The disease is a distinct and recurrent reality for some countries in Africa, where outbreaks have occurred for many years (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2019). As of this writing, an ongoing epidemic has claimed close to 2,600 lives in Democratic Republic of the Congo (World Health Organization [WHO], 2019). Half of the initial $1 billion contribution by the United States toward GHSA support was designated to Africa (Nuzzo, Cicero, & Inglesby, 2017) This commitment was renewed in 2017 with additional GHSA‐earmarked obligations of $454 million to the U.S CDC and $245 million to the U.S Agency for International Development (GHSA, 2018). U.S investment in the global health security infrastructure aims to reinforce humanitarian and public health protections in resource‐limited environments, thereby strengthening domestic and international health safeguards
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