Long dawn before take-off: Spatio-temporal patterns and mechanisms of China's urban growth, 1900–1978

Abstract

Urbanization is an important part of the modernization of traditional societies, and the growth of major cities is a prominent manifestation of urbanization. This paper uses historical maps and demographic data to measure the urban population and construction land growth of 47 major cities in China during 1900–1978, and examines the influence factors with different politic backgrounds. (1) China's cities were generally experiencing rapid growth. The growth rate of urban land was higher and more stable than urban population. (2) The growth rate of city size was negatively correlated with initial sizes, deviating Gibrat's law; the population's rank-size structure converged the Zipf's model during 1910–1949, but deviated during 1949–1978. The spatial pattern of urban system gradually shifted from regionalized core-periphery to a nationally-integrated, regional-egalitarian structures. (3) The patterns and mechanisms of urban population growth and land growth are not identical, reflected in the change of the distribution of urban construction land per capita. Urban land growth is more correlated with capital investment. (4) China was in a typical preconditions for take-off phase before 1949, but did not fit into the take-off phase as Rostow argues in 1949–1978. This period is crucial in comprehending China's rapid take-off after 1978, as it established the industrial foundation at the expense of urbanization. The previous process has left indelible traces and highlights the problem of the abnormal growth of urban land in recent years, thereby prompting a reflection on the role of land finance in China.