Long and Short-Run Effects of Climate Change on Boro Rice Productivity: An Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh

Abstract

This study endeavors to examine the effect of climate change on Boro rice productivity in Bangladesh. Unit root, Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model estimation technique are applied to measure the climate-crop yield interrelation on the basis of country level time series data for the period 1972-2019. Average maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and humidity are used to attribute variables for climate change. The result of vector error correction model denotes that both in the long-run and short-run, average maximum temperature, average total rainfall and humidity negatively effect on Boro rice productivity in Bangladesh respectively. On the other hand, Average minimum temperature is positively effect on Boro rice productivity in the short-run. Fertilizer and irrigation have positive effect on Boro rice productivity in the short-run respectively. Conversely, labor has robust negative effect on Boro rice productivity in the short-run in Bangladesh agriculture. Policy maker should develop policies to mitigate temperature and introduce heat tolerant rice varieties and adaptation measure to sustain the Boro rice productivity in Bangladesh.