LONG- AND SHORT-TERM EVOLUTION OF SALE PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN UKRAINE IN 2010-2021

Abstract

The price is an indicator that accumulates information about the cost of production, balance between supply and demand, its quality evaluation by consumers, the variety of offer by manufacturers and other characteristics. The price is formed not only as a mathematically calculated value depending on the cost price or accompanying costs, but it considers the market situation. Prices on agricultural products are influenced by such industry specific as production seasonality.
 The source data base was analyzed to study prices evolution for some agricultural products in Ukraine. In particular, the features of changes in price indicators were revealed and described for fruit, berries, potatoes, grains, legumes, and oil crops.
 Vegetable price data set was analyzed to reconstruct evolution of price fluctuations for the period of January 2010 - December 2021. Decomposing method was applied to extract trend, seasonal and random components from time series. It allowed to build short- and long-term tendencies on the base of its fluctuations. A multiplicative model was approximated to understand dynamics of price index and reveal its behavior in impact circumstances of nature and economic factors. Price fluctuations for agricultural products is presented monthly and in years. It helped to describe long-term trend of price evolution. Moreover, modelling let us to predict values for 2022 and 2023. Forecasted values were compared with factual data from official statistical sources. 
 According to results of analysis predicted dynamics almost completely repeated real tendency, in seasonality. Nevertheless, prices of 2022-2023 years were influenced by Russian invasion consequences. Prices soared over the predicted values. That happened because of destruction of the logistics for agricultural products supply, loss of farm assets, contamination of land with explosive substances, rise of inflation, increase of costs and demand on deficient goods, shortening of products and raw supply. At the same time, it is demonstrated that prices of products of so-called "borscht set" have been constantly increasing since 2013. That was caused by inflation and poor harvests. Mentioned factors led to that certain vegetables were imported from abroad.