Lohnt sich für Pharmaunternehmen der Markteintritt als Late Mover? — Ergebnisse einer Rentabilitätsanalyse

Abstract

This paper describes a comprehensive profitability analysis of late mover products in a large segment of the global market for cardiovascular drugs. The study is based on the estimation and classification of over 200 product life cycles from four global cardiovascular product categories which leads to different life cycles for the pioneer as well as early follower products on the one hand and late mover products on the other hand. The order of entry, thus, is not only crucial to achieve a certain market share level but also to the shape of the drug life cycle and finally for the long term economic evaluation of innovative products. The paper provides first findings on this subject through a simulation study which is in line with previous research designs and shows the impact of the product life cycle shape on the net present value. The effects of relative changes in several input values on net present value are investigated in a sensitivity analysis. The computation of selected point elasticities reveals the potential impact decisions on marketing mix variables like price and promotional effort can have.