Abstract
This article discusses the problems encountered in using linear models with dichotomous dependent variables. Two nonlinear approaches—logit and probit models—are presented and demonstrated in the context of a program evaluation of recidivism in juvenile justice. Among three different placement options—family care, group home care, or institutional care—recidivism rates were lowest for institutional care. This was largely because many institutionalized youths were in secure confinement for much of the evaluation period. High recidivism rates were observed for chronic property offenders placed in group home settings; these youths fared better in family care.
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