Logistic substitution model and technological forecasting

Abstract

In this paper the application of several models, based on the logistic growth function (simple logistic, component logistic and logistic substitution models) in the context of technology change forecasting is discussed. The main idea of this paper is to revise existing models and arrange working hypotheses for future research. First, the features of a simple logistic model are presented, different types of competition are discussed and a component logistic model is briefly presented. Second, logistic substitution models in the context of long-term technological forecasting are reviewed. Third, some hypotheses about how to improve the reliability of the logistic substitution model for studying the technological future are proposed.