Abstract
In the medical education field, the prediction of variables that have an impact on the academic performance of students is highly important as supporting programs can be implemented to avoid dropouts or failing scores. Several studies have confirmed the relationship between student performance during the first months at college and the one afterwards; nevertheless, every medical school has its particularities. The objective is to develop a logistic regression model to predict first-year medical students’ performance using academic, psychological and vocational variables as well as learning and strategies for self-motivation. The study is observational, transversal and descriptive. The study group consisted of 1205 first-year medical students. Participants completed questionnaires dealing with general knowledge, psychosocial factors, factors associated with career choice, as well as research and autoregulation strategies inventory. Participation was fully voluntary and the results were used under confidential agreement (NDA). The multiple regression model considered pleasure in academic background, percentage of checkmarks in general knowledge, perceived efficiency (categoric with 3 levels), aptitude, interest in biological sciences and health, follow stablished regulations, drive and the pursue of social prestige as covariables. We conclude that a logistic regression model to predict academic performance, mostly of those medical students under academic risk in the biomedical area, is an efficient tool as it allows valid conclusions for appropriate decision making.
Highlights
The logistic regression model aims to describe the relationship between one or more independent variables that may be continuous, categorical, or binary (Hosmer, Stanley, & Rodney, 2000)
We conclude that a logistic regression model to predict academic performance, mostly of those medical students under academic risk in the biomedical area, is an efficient tool as it allows valid conclusions for appropriate decision making
Several studies have confirmed the relationship between student performance during the first months at college and the ones afterwards (Horn & Carroll, 1998; Murtaugh, Burns, & Schuster, 1999; Winston, van der Vleuten, & Scherpbier, 2014); every medical school has its particularities and in the Faculty of Medicine at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), there is a high index of failure in the biomedical area during the first year of studies and an increased number of repeaters in the following academic year
Summary
The logistic regression model aims to describe the relationship between one or more independent variables that may be continuous, categorical, or binary (Hosmer, Stanley, & Rodney, 2000). The logistic regression model has become a useful tool in business, medicine, epidemiology, sociology and marketing, and so on as it can predict the ailment disease, the granting of a credit to a specific individual, the success or failure of a business, among many others. Research on prediction of academic success in medical students has generated a database of substantial knowledge on the factors predicting school performance (Ferguson, James, & Madeley, 2002; O’Neill, Wallstedt, Eika, & Hartvigsen, 2011). This allows medical schools to offer prompt and tailored support for students at risk of academic failure. Several studies have confirmed the relationship between student performance during the first months at college and the ones afterwards (Horn & Carroll, 1998; Murtaugh, Burns, & Schuster, 1999; Winston, van der Vleuten, & Scherpbier, 2014); every medical school has its particularities and in the Faculty of Medicine at UNAM, there is a high index of failure in the biomedical area during the first year of studies and an increased number of repeaters in the following academic year
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