Logistic Regression Model for Evaluating Soil Liquefaction Probability Using CPT Data

Abstract

A simple model for evaluating liquefaction probability using cone penetration test (CPT) data is developed based on logistic regression analyses of 396 case histories. The proposed model uses the normalized cone penetration resistance and soil behavior type index as input parameters; therefore, only CPT testing is necessary for evaluating the liquefaction probability of a site. The selection of the model parameters and the expression of equations are based on results of probability examinations and rigorous statistical analyses. Moreover, the derivation of the logistic regression model is presented in a system of equations. The incorporation of these procedures in developing the model not only fully satisfies the statistic requirements but also highlights the physical meanings of the model parameters. Comparisons of the proposed probability model with previously proposed deterministic and probabilistic approaches are performed to demonstrate the improvements. For practical purposes, the developed model is implemented to establish the relationship between the factor of safety against liquefaction and the probability of liquefaction.