Log-Periodic Power Law and Generalized Hurst Exponent Analysis in Estimating an Asset Bubble Bursting Time

Abstract

AbstractWe closely examine and compare two promising techniques helpful in estimating the moment an asset bubble bursts. Namely, the Log-Periodic Power Law model and Generalized Hurst Exponent approaches are considered. Sequential LPPL fitting to empirical financial time series exhibiting evident bubble behavior is presented. Estimating the critical crash-time works satisfactorily well also in the case of GHE, when substantial „decorrelation“ prior to the event is visible. An extensive simulation study carried out on empirical data: stock indices and commodities, confirms very good performance of the two approaches.