Log-Linear Model Analysis of Aftershock Sequences: A Review on the 6 February Earthquakes in Turkey

Abstract

Researchers have conducted numerous studies on earthquakes and aftershocks, some of which have utilized statistical analysis methods. However, there is no direct research examining the interaction between variables thought to influence aftershocks following major earthquakes. In this study, 2194 aftershocks with a magnitude of 3 or higher that occurred after two major earthquakes in Turkey on February 6, 2023 were analyzed using log-linear models with respect to variables such as depth, magnitude, time, and city. At the end of the study, all four primary variables - city, magnitude, depth, and time - were found to be statistically significant. Based on the parameter estimation values, it was found that the probability of aftershocks occurring in Malatya was 1.17 times greater than in Adıyaman, 2.82 times greater than in Gaziantep, and 1.38 times greater than in Hatay, while the probability of aftershocks occurring in Kahramanmaraş was 3 times greater than in Malatya. Thus, it can be said that the aftershocks are influenced by the center of the major earthquake. Additionally, it was found that the probability of aftershocks with a magnitude between 3 and 3.5 was 1.4 times greater than those with a magnitude of 4 or higher, and the probability of aftershocks with a depth of less than 10 kilometers was 2 times greater. We believe that the results of this study will provide information on aftershocks that occur after major earthquakes and will be helpful for future studies.