LOCL-06 SUPERVISED MACHINE LEARNING IDENTIFIES RISK FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH LEPTOMENINGEAL DISEASE AFTER SURGICAL RESECTION OF BRAIN METASTASES

Abstract

BACKGROUNDResection of brain metastases (BMs) can help with local disease control, yet predictors of leptomeningeal disease (LMD) after surgery are not well defined. This study examined rates and predictors of LMD in patients who underwent resection of a BM. METHODSA retrospective, single-center study was conducted examining LMD risk for adult patients with a BM that underwent resection with postoperative adjuvant radiation. Logistic regression analyses and a supervised machine learning algorithm (Random forest) were implemented to identify factors within the cohort that were associated with LMD. RESULTSOf the 182 patients in the cohort, 43 patients (23.6%) developed LMD in the postoperative setting with 18 cases of classical LMD (9.9%) and 25 cases of nodular LMD (13.7%). Median censored time to LMD was not reached, and 6-, 12-, and 24-month LMD-free rates from surgery were 93%, 86.3%, and 71.8%, respectively. Median time from surgery to classical and nodular LMD were 13.1 and 9.5 months, respectively (Log-rank p=0.71). Patients diagnosed with classical LMD had worse survival outcomes from LMD diagnosis compared to nodular LMD (2.6 vs 9.7 mo, Log-rank p=0.02), and LMD-subtype was significantly associated with overall survival from the date of surgery (classical vs nodular vs none: 16.1 vs 20 vs 36.7 mo, p <.0001). Random forest analysis identified primary cancer type, absence of extracranial disease, and tumor volume as the top 3 factors associated with LMD. On multivariate regression analysis, absence of extracranial disease at index surgery was associated with any LMD (OR 2.65, 95% CI 1.15-6.10, p=0.02). Treatment with postoperative checkpoint inhibitors, type of radiation, and performing additional craniotomies were not associated with risk of LMD. CONCLUSIONSClassical-type LMD is associated with worse prognosis compared to nodular-type LMD. Absence of extracranial disease at the time of surgery was the most consistent factor associated with LMD on follow-up.