Location-allocation modeling for emergency evacuation planning with GIS and remote sensing: A case study of Northeast Bangladesh

Abstract

This work developed models to identify optimal spatial distribution of emergency evacuation centers (EECs) such as schools, colleges, hospitals, and fire stations to improve flood emergency planning in the Sylhet region of northeastern Bangladesh. The use of location-allocation models (LAMs) for evacuation in regard to flood victims is essential to minimize disaster risk. In the first step, flood susceptibility maps were developed using machine learning models (MLMs), including: Levenberg–Marquardt back propagation (LM-BP) neural network and decision trees (DT) and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method. Performance of the MLMs and MCDM techniques were assessed considering the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Mathematical approaches in a geographic information system (GIS) for four well-known LAM problems affecting emergency rescue time are proposed: maximal covering location problem (MCLP), the maximize attendance (MA), p-median problem (PMP), and the location set covering problem (LSCP). The results showed that existing EECs were not optimally distributed, and that some areas were not adequately served by EECs (i.e., not all demand points could be reached within a 60-min travel time). We concluded that the proposed models can be used to improve planning of the distribution of EECs, and that application of the models could contribute to reducing human casualties, property losses, and improve emergency operation.