Location specific climate change scenario and its impact on rice and wheat in Central Indian Punjab

Abstract

A study was conducted to (i) derive future modeled climate data for different locations, (ii) assess the impact of location specific climate change scenario on crop duration, yield, water and nitrogen-balance and-use efficiency of rice–wheat system and (iii) evaluate delaying of trans-/planting date of crops as adaptation measures. Results indicate that in mid century (MC) and end century (EC) time slice of the 21st century, rainfall and temperature would increase; crop yields (simulated with cropping systems simulation model) would decrease owing to shortening of crop duration. In MC (2021–2050) and EC (2071–2098), evapotranspiration, transpiration, drainage and irrigation requirement would decrease and soil water evaporation would increase. However, their magnitudes would vary with the location. The water use efficiency of rice and wheat crops would increase in MC. The agronomic efficiency of applied nitrogen is more in rice than that in wheat during present time slice (1998–2009) and this difference would amplify in MC and EC. Nitrogen recovery efficiency is more in wheat and the difference would reduce in EC. Crop yield and water & nitrogen use efficiency reveal relations with time slice and soil profile characteristics of the location. Delaying trans-/planting of rice by 15days in MC; and of wheat by 15–21days in MC and EC emerged as the best adaptation measures to sustain yield of rice–wheat system at all locations.