Abstract
AbstractDespite evidence that women win when they run for office, the number of women in the US House of Representatives has not increased substantially. I argue that women win when they run because women engage in strategic behavior by emerging in locations where they are most likely to win. While strategic behavior is a necessary condition for increasing women's representation in office, it is not a sufficient condition. Analyzing regularly scheduled elections between 1992 and 2014, I demonstrate that women engage in strategic behavior by emerging in elections where they are most likely to win. However, the electoral opportunities for women are far from “gender neutral” and are shaped by the parties. Democratic and Republican women are most likely to emerge as candidates in districts where they are likely to win the primary and general elections; however, Republican women face even more constrained electoral opportunities.
Highlights
Observers have noted that “When women run, they win” for over three decades
While many scholars have argued women candidates make careful calculations about where and when to run for elected office, these studies reach this conclusion by examining a variety of indirect indicators of strategic behavior
There are slight differences in how Democratic and Republican women consider the probability of winning the primary and general elections when deciding to emerge as candidates
Summary
Observers have noted that “When women run, they win” for over three decades (for examples, see Burrell 2014). Panel D allows us to assess if women candidates weight the probabilities of winning the primary and general election in making their decision to emerge.
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