Location-allocation of fixed shelters for the elderly from the perspective of needs for refuge: A case of Hefei, China

Abstract

Disasters, occurring more frequently and severely, have had significant effects on the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable. In response to this risk, there has been increased focus on the emergency shelter planning. This study investigates the location-allocation of fixed shelters for the elderly, considering their needs for evacuation and refuge. A multi-objective model for the location-allocation of fixed shelters is developed, and is solved using genetic algorithms and simulated annealing algorithms. Then, the model is used to compare the location-allocation of fixed shelters in two scenarios: when there are no differences in the needs of the elderly and non-elderly refugees for evacuation and refuge, and when there are differences in their needs. This study also analyzes the current situation of the elderly population and fixed shelters in four urban districts of Hefei, and selects Luyang district, where there is a high demand of the elderly for refuge compared to the supply of fixed shelters, as a case study. Results show that when considering the needs of the elderly, the success rate of evacuation and refuge in Luyang district is decreased by 1.88%, with the elderly refugees who can evacuate independently having the lowest success rate, 87.36%, among all refugees. Empirical tests also reveal that the optimization of fixed shelters for the elderly can be achieved by utilizing public buildings to increase the number of fixed shelters, and by building indoor refuge rooms for the elderly refugees in outdoor fixed shelters to improve the type structure of the fixed shelters.