Abstract
The trends estimated by the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter are smooth by design and it is not easy to pinpoint their change-points. In this study, we locate their change-points by formulating the HP filter as a generalized unobserved components model with error terms of mixtures of normal distributions. We apply the method to US real GDP for the 1947:1–2013:3 period and find that a sequence of mostly negative shocks, rather than a few extraordinary large ones, are responsible for the changes in the US real GDP trend.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
