Localizing weather forecasts for enhanced heat load forecast accuracy in urban district heating systems

Abstract

ABSTRACT Weather forecasts are essential for district heating (DH) utility operations as they prepare the utility for future consumption, thus ensuring optimal operation by supplying sufficient heat while keeping costs low. Weather forecasts are usually converted into heat demand forecasts, which are used for production planning and control of the temperatures in the network. Hence, increasing the accuracy of weather forecasts will lead to improvements in the system's operational performance. However, numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are computed over the earth as grid values, and NWPs are designed for rural areas, not urban areas. Therefore, we propose to localise the weather forecasts to the urban environment by calibrating them using Model Output Statistics. We show that localising weather forecasts (removing the bias) leads to enhanced accuracy in the heat demand forecasts. In our case study, localised weather forecasts lead to an error reduction between 1.5% and 2.5% when compared to forecasts using uncalibrated NWPs.