Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement.

Ruben Van Hooidonk,Jerker Tamelander,Serge Planes,Jamison Gove,Jeffrey Maynard,Gareth Williams,Laurie Raymundo,Scott F Heron,Gabby Ahmadia

doi:10.1038/srep39666

Abstract

Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.

Highlights

Sensitivity and adaptive capacity can be collectively seen as resilience[8]; the ability of a system to maintain key functions, processes and services in the face of acute disturbances and chronic stress[9]
Results for annual severe bleaching (ASB) under RCP8.5 are summarized by country and territory, projections based on RCP8.5 are compared to lower greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5 and we quantify the effect of emissions reductions pledges made following COP21 on projected ASB timing
Under RCP8.5, ASB is projected to occur within the 21st century for 99% of the world’s coral reefs (Figs 1 and S1)

Summary

Introduction

Sensitivity and adaptive capacity can be collectively seen as resilience[8]; the ability of a system to maintain key functions, processes and services in the face of acute disturbances and chronic stress[9]. Adaptive resilience-based management[10] of reefs involves shaping human-environment interactions through management actions that reduce sensitivity to climate threats (i.e. through managing and reducing local-scale anthropogenic stress). The objective of this study is to generate downscaled (4-km) projections of coral bleaching conditions (i.e. exposure to a key climate threat) and to make these publicly accessible to inform conservation planning and climate policy. Climate model projections can be downscaled statistically or dynamically. In the statistical downscaling undertaken here, high-resolution observations of sea surface temperature (SST) are used to adjust model baselines, annual cycles and bleaching thresholds to present-day values at a 4-km scale prior to running projections. Dynamical and statistical downscaling projections of ASB in the Caribbean are compared within van Hooidonk et al.[14]. Results for ASB under RCP8.5 are summarized by country and territory, projections based on RCP8.5 are compared to lower greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5 and we quantify the effect of emissions reductions pledges made following COP21 on projected ASB timing

Objectives

Methods

Results