Abstract

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular sampling method in applications involving intractable likelihood functions. Without evaluating the likelihood function, ABC approximates the posterior distribution by the set of accepted samples which are simulated with parameters drawn from the prior distribution, where acceptance is determined by the distance between the summary statistics of the sample and the observation. The sufficiency and dimensionality of the summary statistics play a central role in the application of ABC. This paper proposes Local Gradient Kernel Dimension Reduction (LGKDR) to construct low dimensional summary statistics for ABC. The proposed method identifies a sufficient subspace of the original summary statistics by implicitly considers all nonlinear transforms therein, and a weighting kernel is used for the concentration of the projections. No strong assumptions are made on the marginal distributions nor the regression model, permitting usage in a wide range of applications. Experiments are done with both simple rejection ABC and sequential Monte Carlo ABC methods. Results are reported as competitive in the former and substantially better in the latter cases in which Monte Carlo errors are compressed as much as possible.

Highlights

  • Monte Carlo methods are popular in sampling and inference problems

  • This paper proposes Local Gradient Kernel Dimension Reduction (LGKDR) to construct low dimensional summary statistics for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC)

  • In the last experiment we explore the Ricker model as discussed in [17] and [27]. The latter two problems are investigated by both Rejection ABC and sequential Monte Carlo ABC method (SMC ABC) [13], the first problem is omitted from SMC ABC because it involves repeated calling an outside program for simulation and is too time consuming for SMC ABC

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Summary

Introduction

Monte Carlo methods are popular in sampling and inference problems. While the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods find successes in applications where likelihood functions are known up to an unknown constant, MCMC cannot be used in scenarios where likelihoods are intractable. The accuracy of ABC posterior depends on sufficiency of summary statistics and Monte Carlo errors induced in the sampling. To provide a principled way of designing the regression function, capturing the higher order non-linearity and realizing an automatic construction of summary statistics, we introduce the kernel based sufficient dimension reduction method as an extension of the linear projection based Semi-automatic ABC. This dimension reduction method is a localized version of gradient based kernel dimension reduction (GKDR) [19].

Gradient based kernel Dimension Reduction
Local Modifications
Separated Dimension Reduction
Discussion on Hyper Parameters
Computational Complexity
Experiments
Implementation Details
Parameter Settings
Population Genetics
Method ABC
Ricker Model
Conclusions
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