Local Immigration and Support for Anti‐Immigration Parties: A Meta‐Analysis

Abstract

AbstractDoes the share of immigrants in a community influence whether people vote for anti‐immigration parties? We conduct a systematic review of the causal inference literature studying this question. We collect estimates from 20 studies and develop a new Bayesian meta‐analysis framework to account for both between‐study heterogeneity in effect sizes and the possibility of reporting bias. Although meta‐analysis methods that do not adjust for reporting bias suggest a moderate effect of local immigration, our Bayesian model finds that the effect of local immigration on far‐right voting is on average negligible once we account for reporting bias. However, the analysis also reveals a large heterogeneity in effects across contexts, suggesting that local immigration may be important for anti‐immigration vote shares in certain settings.