Local Granger causality.

Abstract

Granger causality (GC) is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via linear vector autoregression. For Gaussian variables it is equivalent to transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes. We exploit such equivalence and calculate exactly the local Granger causality, i.e., the profile of the information transferred from the driver to the target process at each discrete time point; in this frame, GC is the average of its local version. We show that thevariability of the local GC around its mean relates to the interplay between driver and innovation (autoregressive noise) processes, and it may reveal transient instances of information transfer not detectable from its average values. Our approach offers a robust and computationally fast method to follow the information transfer along the time history of linear stochastic processes, as well as of nonlinear complex systems studied in the Gaussian approximation.