Local estimation of failure probability function and its confidence interval with maximum entropy principle

Abstract

An approach is developed to locally estimate the failure probability of a system under various design values. Although it seems to require numerous reliability analysis runs to locally estimate the failure probability function, which is a function of the design variables, the approach only requires a single reliability analysis run. The approach can be regarded as an extension of that proposed by Au [Au SK. Reliability-based design sensitivity by efficient simulation. Computers and Structures 2005;83(14):1048–61], but it proposes a better framework in estimating the failure probability function. The key idea is to implement the maximum entropy principle in estimating the failure probability function. The resulting local failure probability function estimate is more robust; moreover, it is possible to find the confidence interval of the failure probability function as well as estimate the gradient of the logarithm of that function with respect to the design variables. The use of the new approach is demonstrated with several simulated examples. The results show that the new approach can effectively locally estimate the failure probability function and the confidence interval with one single Subset Simulation run. Moreover, the new approach is applicable when the dimension of the uncertainties is high and when the system is highly nonlinear. The approach should be valuable for reliability-based optimization and reliability sensitivity analysis.