Local calibration of rigid pavement performance models using resampling methods

Abstract

The performance prediction models in the Pavement-ME design software are nationally calibrated using in-service pavement material properties, pavement structure, climate and truck loadings, and performance data obtained from the Long-Term Pavement Performance programme. The nationally calibrated models may not perform well if the inputs and performance data used to calibrate those do not represent the local design and construction practices. Therefore, before implementing the new M-E design procedure, each state highway agency (SHA) should evaluate how well the nationally calibrated performance models predict the measured field performance. The local calibrations of the Pavement-ME performance models are recommended to improve the performance prediction capabilities to reflect the unique conditions and design practices. During the local calibration process, the traditional calibration techniques (split sampling) may not necessarily provide adequate results when limited number of pavement sections are available. Consequently, there is a need to employ statistical and resampling methodologies that are more efficient and robust for model calibrations given the data related challenges encountered by SHAs. The main objectives of the paper are to demonstrate the local calibration of rigid pavement performance models and compare the calibration results based on different resampling techniques. The bootstrap is a non-parametric and robust resampling technique for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of a statistic. The main advantage of bootstrapping is that model parameters estimation is possible without making distribution assumptions. This paper presents the use of bootstrapping and jackknifing to locally calibrate the transverse cracking and IRI performance models for newly constructed and rehabilitated rigid pavements. The results of the calibration show that the standard error of estimate and bias are lower compared to the traditional sampling methods. In addition, the validation statistics are similar to that of the locally calibrated model, especially for the IRI model, which indicates robustness of the local model coefficients.