(Loans for Property Downpayments: A Chinese Subprime Crisis)

Abstract

Chinese Abstract: 美國次按危機的主要原因是100%的購房貸款，大大增加了違約風險。內地首付貸款以P2P 方式出現，無疑是在複製美國次按危機。在樓市熱銷、樓價飛漲之後的一到兩年時間，不良貸款將開始湧現，樓市泡沫便極可能破滅。不過，危中有機，中國一線城市周邊經濟發展較快、基礎設施逐漸完善的二三線城市，房地產具有一定投資價值。English Abstract: The main cause of the subprime crisis in the United States rests entirely with housing loans, which greatly increased default risks. Loans for property down payments in mainland China have emerged from the peer-to-peer lending sector, and without a doubt is a repeat of the American subprime crisis. In the aftermath of a heated property market and rising housing prices, nonperforming loans will begin to emerge in great numbers, and the popping of the property bubble becomes a likely prospect. However, in danger lies opportunity. The economies around China’s first-tier cities are rapidly developing, and infrastructure is gradually improving in second- and third-tier cities. Real estate will definitely have an investment value.