Load prediction of integrated energy systems for energy saving and carbon emission based on novel multi-scale fusion convolutional neural network

Abstract

The integrated energy system plays an important role in the energy conservation, emission reduction and the resource-efficient utilization. Accurate load forecasting is a significant basis for the optimal scheduling of the integrated energy system. The integrated energy system has coupling interaction between different energy sources in production, distribution and storage. However, the traditional method cannot effectively extract multi-scale features and utilize the coupling information between the multivariate energy sources. In this paper, a novel multi-scale fusion convolutional neural network integrating the bi-directional long short-term memory network and multi-domains hierarchical decoding is proposed to extract and analyze multivariate load data coupling in the integrated energy system data. The multi-scale fusion convolutional neural network is constructed by the multi-dimension convolution layer to obtain multi-scale feature of the integrated energy system data. Meanwhile, the bi-directional long short-term memory network is applied to extract the time dependencies of the integrated energy system data. Finally, the multi-domains hierarchical decoding extracts the coupling characteristics of different domains to predict multiple domains values. Compared with the backpropagation neural network, the support vector machine, the short and long-time memory network, the bi-directional long short-term memory network, and the convolutional neural network - bi-directional long short-term memory network, the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art results in terms of the mean absolute percentage error with 0.365 %, the explained variance score with 99.987 % and the R2-score with 99.984 %, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed model in the load prediction of the integrated energy system. In addition, the proposed method can provide operational guidance for energy production and storage. Through the operation guidance of the proposed method, the carbon emissions are reduced by 238791.58 kg every week.