Load Forecasting Method based on Rough Set and Information Fusion Theory

Abstract

With the requirements of the power load predicting accuracy becoming higher and higher, and the actual power load is also a complex nonlinear system limited by various uncertain factors. Given only considering the influence of a single model on the load forecasting, the predicting accuracy is absolutely not high under the comprehensive effects of multiple factors. Ensuring to make the electrical model satisfy the requirements, there is access to improving the accuracy of load predicting results through analysis of the relationship between load and multiple factors in power load forecasting. This paper combines the rough set theory with information fusion, firstly a decision table of attributes is established on the basis of historical datum, for the purpose of simplifying the attribute index in mining to obtain important information. Following step is to rank the importance of the factors influencing the load according to the degree of effect, with grouping these sorted factors into attributes combination and using the same kind of load forecasting method to predict each combination's own results, and finally all groups of the predicting results are integrated by fusion, where then final predicting result can be obtained. The results of the algorithmic example show that groups of predicting results integrated based on information fusion theory are better than the results got through any casual single attribute combination. And fusion results are a combined action of a variety of related factors, enhancing the favorable trend, where at the same time it has reduced the uncertainty brought by multiple factor comprehensive effect. Based on information fusion the predicting results are helpful to reduce the prediction error, which is feasible and effective. With the explosive growth on the amount of in today's information age, the wave of data is coming, fast and furious. The era of big proposes a new challenge for the development in electricity industry. With the advance of electricity industry, intelligence, automation and interaction will bring many datum casing electrical big generation. Due to the numerous index of power load forecasting, different goals of all kinds of power load forecasting, even with the same kind of theory, the forecast model to predict no matter from the form, content or effect also vary widely. The load in the medium and long-term prediction of power system is greatly influenced by economy, society and meteorology factors and other uncertainties, etc. How to extract the key factor from multiple factors and reduce the results' uncertainty arising from the comprehensive effect of multiple factors, and improving the precision has been becoming a serious problem to be solved. Aiming at these problems, the paper based on the literature (8) proposing medium-and long- term load forecasting based on partial least squares regression analysis, an more optimized and advanced method is put forward to improve accuracy of prediction. The rough set theory and information fusion are introduced into the model, which respectively advance pre-processing and optimize the integration of multiple sets of results after prediction, in order to reduce uncertainty caused by varieties factors affecting and improve accuracy of forecasting results. II. THE ROUGH SET THEORY In the era of big data, on account of the characteristics on grid volume, which is large amount, variety type, and more speed, the traditional attribute simplified methods have been unable to complete the pre-processing on electrical big data. To this end the paper proposes a method on power big simplified processing based on cloud computing technology. The rough set theory which offers a new way for mining, is a new mathematical tool to deal with uncertain and imprecise problems. In this paper, rough sets method is used in power load forecasting to analyze the dependence of load on each factor and the importance of various properties in condition attribute set. In the decision system R={U, A}, the rough set divides A(attribute) into two categories C and D, where C is condition attribute, D is decision attribute, and U is domain. The ternary collection R={U,C,D} is known as a decision-making system. An important application of rough set in the analysis is to find the dependence among attributes from a known decision system R={U,C,D}. The dependency is defined as follows.