Load Forecasting Based on LVMD-DBFCM Load Curve Clustering and the CNN-IVIA-BLSTM Model

Abstract

Power load forecasting plays an important role in power systems, and the accuracy of load forecasting is of vital importance to power system planning as well as economic efficiency. Power load data are nonsmooth, nonlinear time-series and “noisy” data. Traditional load forecasting has low accuracy and curves not fitting the load variation. It is not well predicted by a single forecasting model. In this paper, we propose a novel model based on the combination of data mining and deep learning to improve the prediction accuracy. First, data preprocessing is performed. Second, identification and correction of anomalous data, normalization of continuous sequences, and one-hot encoding of discrete sequences are performed. The load data are decomposed and denoised using the double decomposition modal (LVMD) strategy, the load curves are clustered using the double weighted fuzzy C-means (DBFCM) algorithm, and the typical curves obtained are used as load patterns. In addition, data feature analysis is performed. A convolutional neural network (CNN) is used to extract data features. A bidirectional long short-term memory (BLSTM) network is used for prediction, in which the number of hidden layer neurons, the number of training epochs, the learning rate, the regularization coefficient, and other relevant parameters in the BLSTM network are optimized using the influenza virus immunity optimization algorithm (IVIA). Finally, the historical data of City H from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2018, are used for load forecasting. The experimental results show that the novel model based on LVMD-DBFCM load c1urve clustering combined with CNN-IVIA-BLSTM proposed in this paper has an error of only 2% for electric load forecasting.