Load Forecasting and Operation Optimization of Ice-Storage Air Conditioners Based on Improved Deep-Belief Network

Abstract

The prediction of cold load in ice-storage air conditioning systems plays a pivotal role in optimizing air conditioning operations, significantly contributing to the equilibrium of regional electricity supply and demand, mitigating power grid stress, and curtailing energy consumption in power grids. Addressing the issues of minimal correlation between input and output data and the suboptimal prediction accuracy inherent in traditional deep-belief neural-network models, this study introduces an enhanced deep-belief neural-network combination prediction model. This model is refined through an advanced genetic algorithm in conjunction with the “Statistical Products and Services Solution” version 25.0 software, aiming to augment the precision of ice-storage air conditioning load predictions. Initially, the input data undergo processing via the “Statistical Products and Services Solution” software, which facilitates the exclusion of samples exhibiting low coupling. Subsequently, the improved genetic algorithm implements adaptive adjustments to surmount the challenge of random weight parameter initialization prevalent in traditional deep-belief networks. Consequently, an optimized deep-belief neural-network load prediction model, predicated on the enhanced genetic algorithm, is established and subjected to training. Ultimately, the model undergoes simulation validation across three critical dimensions: operational performance, prediction evaluation indices, and operating costs of ice-storage air conditioners. The results indicate that, compared to existing methods for predicting the cooling load of ice-storage air conditioning, the proposed model achieves a prediction accuracy of 96.52%. It also shows an average improvement of 14.12% in computational performance and a 14.32% reduction in model energy consumption. The prediction outcomes align with the actual cooling-load variation patterns. Furthermore, the daily operational cost of ice-storage air conditioning, derived from the predicted cooling-load data, has an error margin of only 2.36%. This contributes to the optimization of ice-storage air conditioning operations.