Load, Electrification Adoption, and Behind-the-Meter Solar Forecasts for Alaska’s Railbelt Transmission System

Abstract

Load forecasting is an important component of power system and resource planning for electrical grids. The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), behind-the-meter (BTM) solar, and heat pumps will significantly change the amount and variability of loads. Electrification adoption and load forecasting in arctic regions and Alaska is limited. This paper provides the first load and electrification adoption forecast for the Alaska Railbelt transmission system, including yearly adoption rates of EVs, BTM solar, and heat pumps and hourly load data for the forecasted year of 2050. The adoption rates were based on the available historical data and compared to other regional and national trends. Two forecasts were created: (1) a moderate adoption forecast based on projections from current adoption rates and comparisons to other regional and national projections and (2) an aggressive forecast, which provides an illustrative comparison of a high adoption rate of 90% for all technologies. The results of these forecasts demonstrate a significant increase in both energy, 80% and 116%, and peak load demand, 113% and 219%, for the moderate and aggressive electrification adoption scenarios, respectively. These findings highlight a need for resource planning and demand management in this region due to the adoption of EVs, BTM solar, and heat pumps.