Lkw-Verkehrsdaten in der Konjunkturanalyse: Eine Anwendung für die bayerische Wirtschaft

Abstract

Gross domestic product (GDP) figures for Germany's 16 federal states are currently only published twice a year, with no quarterly figures available. This makes it impossible to pinpoint the exact timing of turning points in the economies of individual states. However, industrial production provides a practical alternative. To reduce the delay in identifying macroeconomic turning points at state level, the authors examine more promptly available road haulage data, taking Bavaria as an example. Data from the Bundesanstalt fur Strasenwesen and the Zentralstelle Verkehrsmanagement in Bavaria are used to compare truck traffic during the financial market crisis in 2008 and 2009 and during the current corona crisis. For the entire period under review, data on the volume of road transport provides a meaningful indicator with which to identify turning points in manufacturing, and thus in overall production, in the Bavarian economy. However, they show the decline in overall economic output only in very rough terms. Road haulage data provided early signs of an increasing decline in real GDP in Bavaria in the first quarter of 2020, in April and in May. In contrast to the financial crisis of 2008/2009, in the current corona crisis road transport data is responding more strongly than industrial production, which may be explained by the broader sectoral impact of the pandemic.