Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on trade over 400 years

Abstract

To what extent did outbreaks of bubonic plague disrupt trade? We estimate the impact of epidemics on trade between regional wheat markets over four centuries — from the Black Death in the 14th century, until the medieval form of the plague became extinct in the 17th century. Using a gravity model, we find that outbreaks had a statistically significant, but relatively modest, impact on local variations in wheat prices. The results provide quantitative evidence on the extent to which epidemics disrupted markets and trade in pre-industrial Europe.