Abstract
Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries. Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future. VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.
Highlights
Vaccines play a vital role in immunising populations worldwide to provide protection against a wide range of diseases
A brief overview of pathogens is provided in Table 1 with detailed model descriptions provided in Appendix 2.2 (HepB [Nayagam et al, 2016], human papillomavirus (HPV) [Goldie et al, 2008; Abbas et al, 2020b], Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) [Clark et al, 2019a; Walker et al, 2013a], Japanese encephalitis (JE) [Quan et al, 2020], Measles [Chen et al, 2012], meningitidis serogroup A (MenA) [Karachaliou et al, 2015; Tartof et al, 2013], PCV [Walker et al, 2013a; Clark et al, 2019a], Rota [Pitzer et al, 2012; Clark et al, 2019a], Rubella [Boulianne et al, 1995; Vynnycky et al, 2019], yellow fever (YF) [Gaythorpe et al, 2021a])
We present results using ‘fully vaccinated persons (FVPs)’ which refer to the total number of doses provided by a vaccination activity
Summary
Vaccines play a vital role in immunising populations worldwide to provide protection against a wide range of diseases. To further increase momentum on vaccine coverage, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, was created in 2000 with a goal of providing vaccines to save lives and protect people’s health (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, 2020; Zerhouni, 2019). As of 2019, Gavi has helped immunise over 822 million children through routine programmes and provided over 1.1 billion vaccinations through campaigns in supported countries (Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, 2019). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium’s modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication
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