Abstract
BackgroundThe number of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the H5N1 subtype (HPAIV H5N1) over the past 5 years has been drastically reduced in China but sporadic infections in poultry and humans are still occurring. In this study, we aimed to investigate seasonal patterns in the association between the movement of live poultry originating from southern China and HPAIV H5N1 infection history in humans and poultry in China.Methodology/Principal FindingsDuring January to April 2010, longitudinal questionnaire surveys were carried out monthly in four wholesale live bird markets (LBMs) in Hunan and Guangxi provinces of South China. Using social network analysis, we found an increase in the number of observed links and degree centrality between LBMs and poultry sources in February and March compared to the months of January and April. The association of some live poultry traders (LPT’s) with a limited set of counties (within the catchment area of LBMs) in the months of February and March may support HPAIV H5N1 transmission and contribute to perpetuating HPAIV H5N1 virus circulation among certain groups of counties. The connectivity among counties experiencing human infection was significantly higher compared to counties without human infection for the months of January, March and April. Conversely, counties with poultry infections were found to be significantly less connected than counties without poultry infection for the month of February.Conclusions/SignificanceOur results show that temporal variation in live poultry trade in Southern China around the Chinese New Year festivities is associated with higher HPAIV H5N1 infection risk in humans and poultry. This study has shown that capturing the dynamic nature of poultry trade networks in Southern China improves our ability to explain the spatiotemporal dissemination in avian influenza viruses in China.
Highlights
China’s poultry sector plays an important role in the national economy [1]
Conclusions/Significance: Our results show that temporal variation in live poultry trade in Southern China around the Chinese New Year festivities is associated with higher HPAIV H5N1 infection risk in humans and poultry
This study provides important new knowledge with regard to the temporal dynamics of live poultry trade during the months around the Chinese New Year in counties of South China and how this information is associated with retrospective data on HPAIV H5N1 infection reported in poultry and humans in China
Summary
China’s poultry sector plays an important role in the national economy [1]. The poultry sector is characterized by a traditional husbandry system (including backyard operations) which plays a key role in people’s livelihood and represents a significant part of the overall poultry output [1]. Industrialization of livestock production is known to increase the risk of epidemics some of them with pandemic potential, as is the case with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the H5N1 subtype (HPAIV H5N1) [2]. HPAIV H5N1 poultry outbreaks in China have been reduced remarkably over the past five years after the implementation of a control policy based on mass poultry vaccination. The resurgence of HPAIV H5N1 infection in early 2012 indicates that the risk for animal and human exposure to HPAIV H5N1 still persists in some segments of the poultry production and marketing industry in China [8,9]. The number of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the H5N1 subtype (HPAIV H5N1) over the past 5 years has been drastically reduced in China but sporadic infections in poultry and humans are still occurring. We aimed to investigate seasonal patterns in the association between the movement of live poultry originating from southern China and HPAIV H5N1 infection history in humans and poultry in China
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