Little Ice Age climate inferred from glacier-climate modeling: A case study of Gurla Mandhata, southwestern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

The climatic drivers of the glacial advance that occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA) on the Tibetan Plateau continue to be debated. Paleoclimatic reconstructions derived from glacial records are key to advancing our understanding of climate-glacier interactions, but research into such interactions during the LIA on the Tibetan Plateau is lacking. However, the LIA glacial advance in the Gurla Mandhata area provides an opportunity to apply glacier-climate modeling to infer LIA paleoclimate. We use a coupled mass balance and ice flow model to simulate glacial evolution under different climatic conditions around Gurla Mandhata. Our simulation shows that variation in the extent of glaciers on Gurla Mandhata responded more sensitively to temperature change than to precipitation change. With LIA precipitation at ~50–140% of modern values, as inferred from ice-core records and also considering the influence of mid-latitude westerlies and the Asia monsoon, the temperature on Gurla Mandhata during the LIA is estimated to have been ~0.4–2 °C lower than present. The modeled temperature differential compared with the modern climate at Gurla Mandhata is comparable with previous estimates from the Tibetan Plateau. Combining our model results with climate records, temperature change is identified as the main control on LIA glacial advance on Gurla Mandhata. However, given the restricted model domain of the present study, further research is required to establish the relationship between glacier fluctuations and climatic change for the other parts of the Tibetan Plateau.