Lithuanian forests and climate change: possible effects on tree species composition

Abstract

Outputs from the HadCM3 Global Climate Circulation Model according to scenarios A2 and B1 were used for climate change predictions in Lithuania. According to scenario A2, the annual temperature will increase by approximately 4.0 °C from 2061 to 2090, while scenario B1 predicts an increase of 2.0 °C. In contrast to scenario B1, scenario A2 predicts an annual increase in precipitation of 15–20 % at the end of the century. Based on the predicted climatic data for the two scenarios and climate maps by European Food Safety Authority for the EU, we created climate analogues for Lithuania for 2031–2060 and 2061–2090. These areas were overlain by the digital map of native tree species distributions in Europe, which was created from the European Forest Genetic Resources Programme database. If climate changes occur according to scenario B1, in 2031–2060, Lithuania’s climate will become suitable for approximately five to six alien species, such as Acer campestre, Acer pseudoplatanus, Fagus sylvatica, Populus nigra, and Prunus avium. In 2061–2090, these species will be joined by Sorbus domestica and Tilia platyphyllos. If climate changes occur according to scenario A2, at the end of the twenty-first century, Castanea sativa, Quercus pubescens, and Sorbus torminalis could expand this list. With respect to species dispersal rates, there is a high probability that the species A. campestre, A. pseudoplatanus, P. nigra, and P. avium will become immigrants to Lithuanian forests at the end of the twenty-first century. Approximately 20 new species native to Europe will be suitable for cultivation (scenario A2). Climate change will affect the distributions of native species too. An increase in the proportion of deciduous tree species (except Alnus incana) and some reduction in the proportion of conifers, Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), are expected in Lithuanian forests.