Listing of Developer Companies as a Predictor of the Situation on the Residential Real Estate Market

Abstract

Abstract The stock exchange is considered one of the most important financial institutions in the market economy. The stock market reacts to the state of the economy almost immediately, and, in the end, the quotations of companies affect the state of other markets. The author decided to look at companies from the WIG Real Estate index as important entities shaping the real estate market. When comparing the situation on the capital market with the situation on the residential real estate market, one could, building an appropriate model, conclude how much these markets interact. Purpose - The purpose of the article is to present the links between two important markets, the capital market, with real estate companies as its representatives, and the secondary housing market. In order to achieve the goal, a research hypothesis was formulated: the economic situation on the real estate companies market will be reflected in the situation on the secondary housing market. Design/methodology/approach - Cross-sectional regression analysis was used in the study. Using the data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the National Bank of Poland, regression models where price changes in the secondary housing market are explained by the quotations of real estate companies and selected stock exchange indices were built. The study was carried out from the first quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2017. Findings - Two models were built in which the rates of return on investments in real estate companies explain the price changes in the secondary housing market in a statistically significant way. Thus, the research hypothesis was positively verified, showing that the real estate market and the stock market of real estate companies are interrelated. Originality/Value - The alternative method of analyzing the real estate market can be considered as the original value of the presented results. A demonstration of the connections between both markets allows us to validate the methods used on the stock market to analyze the real estate market. An example application is the use of methods for estimating the cost of capital from the stock market in the real estate market.