Liquidity Supply and Real Activity

Abstract

This paper develops a novel measure of liquidity supply by broker-dealers using data on their trading positions in Treasury bonds and the deviations of Treasury yields from a fitted yield curve. The measure is informative about liquidity in other asset classes including corporate bonds and equities. A decline in liquidity supply predicts reduced debt issuance and investment by non-financial firms and reduced aggregate economic activity. The sensitivity of liquidity, issuance, and investment to broker-dealers' liquidity supply is larger for firms with low credit quality. The results suggest that securities intermediaries are important for understanding liquidity commonality, corporate financing, and real activity.