Abstract
IntroductionPrevious lipidomics studies have identified various lipid predictors for cardiovascular risk, however, with limited predictive increment, sometimes using too many predictor variables at the expense of practical efficiency. ObjectivesTo search for lipid predictors of future coronary heart disease (CHD) with stronger predictive power and efficiency to guide primary intervention. MethodsWe conducted a prospective nested case-control study involving 1,621 incident CHD cases and 1:1 matched controls. Lipid profiling of 161 lipid species for baseline fasting plasma was performed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. ResultsIn search of CHD predictors, seven lipids were selected by elastic-net regression during over 90% of 1000 cross-validation repetitions, and the derived composite lipid score showed an adjusted odds ratio of 3.75 (95% confidence interval: 3.15, 4.46) per standard deviation increase. Addition of the lipid score into traditional risk model increased c-statistic to 0.736 by an increment of 0.077 (0.063, 0.092). From the seven lipids, we found mediation of CHD risk from baseline diabetes through sphingomyelin (SM) 41:1b with a considerable mediation proportion of 36.97% (P < 0.05). We further found that the positive associations of phosphatidylcholine (PC) 36:0a, SM 41:1b, lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC) 18:0 and LPC 20:3 were more pronounced among participants with higher exposure to fine particulate matter or its certain components, also to ozone for LPC 18:0 and LPC 20:3, while the negative association of cholesteryl ester (CE) 18:2 was attenuated with higher black carbon exposure (P < 0.05). ConclusionWe identified seven lipid species with greatest predictive increment so-far achieved for incident CHD, and also found novel biomarkers for CHD risk stratification among individuals with diabetes or heavy air pollution exposure.
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