Lipase-to-Amylase Ratio for the Prediction of Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula following Pancreaticoduodenectomy.

Abstract

Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF) represents a leading cause of morbidity and mortality following major pancreatic resections. This study aimed to evaluate the use of post-operative drain fluid lipase-to-amylase ratio(LAR) for the prediction of clinically relevant fistulae(CR-POPF). Consecutive patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy between 2017-2021 at a tertiary centre were retrospectively reviewed. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify predictors for CR-POPF(ISGPS Grades B/C). Receiver operator characteristic(ROC) curve analyses were conducted to evaluate the performance of LAR and determine optimum prediction thresholds. Among 130 patients, 28(21.5%) developed CR-POPF. Variables positively associated with CR-POPF included soft gland texture, acinar cell density, diagnosis other than PDAC or chronic pancreatitis, resection without neoadjuvant therapy, and postoperative drain fluid lipase, amylase, and LAR(all p < 0.05). Multivariable regression analysis identified LAR as an independent predictor of CR-POPF(p < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that LAR had moderate ability to predict CR-POPF on POD1(AUC = 0.64,95%CI = 0.54-0.74) and excellent ability on POD3(AUC = 0.85,95%CI = 0.78-0.92) and POD5(AUC = 0.86,95%CI = 0.79-0.92). Optimum thresholds were consistent over POD1-5 (ratio > 2.6) and associated with 92% sensitivity and 46-71% specificity. Postoperative drain fluid LAR represents a reliable predictor for the development of CR-POPF. With early prognostication, the postoperative care of patients deemed at risk of developing high-grade fistulas may be optimised.