Linking the Recent Glacier Retreat and Depleting Streamflow Patterns with Land System Changes in Kashmir Himalaya, India

Irfan Rashid,Ulfat Majeed,Sheikh Aneaus,Mauri Pelto

doi:10.3390/w12041168

Abstract

This study reports the changes in glacier extent and streamflow similar to many Himalayan studies, but takes the unusual step of also linking these to downstream land use changes in Kashmir Valley. This study assessed changes in the area, snout, and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of four parts of the Kolahoi Glacier using earth observation data from 1962 to 2018. Changes in the discharge of the two streams flowing out from Kolahoi Glacier into the Jhelum basin were also assessed between 1972 and 2018. Additionally, satellite data was used to track the downstream land system changes concerning agriculture, orchards, and built-up areas between 1980 and 2018. This analysis suggested a cumulative deglaciation of 23.6% at a rate of 0.42% per year from 1962 to 2018. The snout of two larger glaciers, G1 and G2, retreated at a rate of 18.3 m a−1 and 16.4 m a−1, respectively, from 1962 to 2018, although the rate of recession accelerated after 2000. Our analysis also suggested the upward shift of ELA by ≈120 m. The streamflows measured at five sites showed statistically significant depleting trends that have been a factor in forcing extensive land system changes downstream. Although the area under agriculture in Lidder watershed shrunk by 39%, there was a massive expansion of 176% and 476% in orchards and built-up areas, respectively, from 1980 to 2018. The conversion of irrigation-intensive agriculture lands (rice paddy) to less water-intensive orchards is attributed to economic considerations and depleting streamflow.

Highlights

Himalayan glaciers are in a continuous state of retreat since the 19th century in response to climatic change and anthropogenic activities [1,2,3] except in the Karakoram region where glaciers have been reported to be in a stable phase [4,5,6]
Kolahoi Glacier has rapidly receded due to climatic changes prevalent over the Kashmir region
The significant upward shift in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the glacier indicates an expansion of the ablation area that leads to a negative mass balance of the glacier

Summary

Introduction

Himalayan glaciers are in a continuous state of retreat since the 19th century in response to climatic change and anthropogenic activities [1,2,3] except in the Karakoram region where glaciers have been reported to be in a stable phase [4,5,6]. The ever increasing temperatures have resulted in the faster melting of cryosphere reserves in the region [7,8]. Most of the studies consider climate to be the main controlling factor in glacier recession [9,10,11], many studies identify the influence of topography [12,13,14] and debris cover on glacier retreat [15,16].

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion