Linking the Determinants of Air Passenger Flows and Aviation Related Carbon Emissions: A European Study

Xuanyu Yue,Julie Byrne

doi:10.3390/su13147574

Abstract

Increasing global concern regarding the negative consequences of climate change will see the introduction of comprehensive policy governing aviation-related carbon emissions. With demand for air travel set to accelerate over the next three decades airlines are faced with the task of catering to increased demand while simultaneously achieving emission reductions. In this study we identify the determinants of air passenger flows and flight frequency and assess their impact on carbon emissions and carbon efficiency. Confining our analysis to the European market, we employ Fixed-Effects (FEIV) and Random-Effects (REIV) instrumental variables modelling techniques to 150 intra-Europe routes and find that the factors that are significant in influencing the operational planning decisions of an airline often lead to carbon inefficiencies. Our findings have important implications for both airlines and policymakers. For airlines, we show how the decisions they make to optimise operations can have negative environmental consequences, while we make suggestions as to how policymakers can incentivise airlines to achieve emission reductions.

Highlights

The aviation industry has faced a rapidly changing landscape over time and increasing public pressure to mitigate the negative effects of climate change coupled with the anticipated accelerated demand for air travel over the three decades will lead to further challenges
Confining our analysis to the intra-Europe market where European Union (EU)-Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) policy is in place, we empirically investigate the factors that are most influential in determining passenger flows and flight frequency
We examine the main factors that influence air passenger flows and flight frequency and how the decisions airlines make to optimise operations may have negative environmental consequences

Summary

Introduction

The aviation industry has faced a rapidly changing landscape over time and increasing public pressure to mitigate the negative effects of climate change coupled with the anticipated accelerated demand for air travel over the three decades will lead to further challenges. Deregulation and the dawn of the Low Cost Carrier (LCC) era has put downward pressure on airfare forcing airlines to operate at increasingly tight margins and, notwithstanding the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for global air transport is anticipated to triple between 2020 and 2050 [2]. Airlines are faced with the seemingly antithetical task of catering to the increased demand for air passenger travel while simultaneously achieving a reduction in aviation-related. Developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization, the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) aims to control aviation-related CO2 emissions and will become mandatory for almost all airlines by 2027 [3]

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Conclusion