Linking temperature to catastrophe damages from hydrologic and meteorological extremes

Abstract

Increases in the magnitude of storm and flood related catastrophes due to climate change are predicted to increase associated economic losses. There exists, however, conflicting evidence for greater economic losses despite well acknowledged increases in the severity of observed extreme events in recent decades. Here, using a worldwide catastrophe insurance database from 1970 to 2015, we link the catastrophe economic loss from extreme storms and floods to local temperature. We find a statistically significant positive association between economic losses expressed as a proportion of GDP and local temperature. The association between economic losses and temperature is greater as the event becomes more extreme, with the signal muted for flooding as compared to storms. Although local associations of economic loss with temperature cannot be directly linked to rising global temperatures as a result of climate change, the positive economic loss-temperature associations are consistent with observed extreme precipitation-temperature associations, and hence pertinent to the advancement of understanding future natural catastrophes.