Linking science and practice in participatory future-oriented assessment and planning of human heat stress vulnerability in Bonn, Germany

Abstract

The juxtaposition of climate change and development changes is vital for understanding the future impacts of heat stress in urban areas. However, an approach that considers the relationship between climatic factors and socio-economic vulnerability in a forward-looking and stakeholder-involved manner is challenging. This article demonstrates the application of a future-oriented vulnerability scenarios approach to address human heat stress in Bonn, Germany, in 2035. The study highlights the interplays between climate trajectories and heat exposure associated with urban development scenario corridors. Moreover, this method allows for changing combinations of intersections and conditionalities of projected individual socio-economic vulnerability indicators in response to social and climate governance. However, this study found that a conventional structure within city departments might limit this integrative approach in practice. Thus, the theoretical background and the concept of alternative futures and uncertainties should be the focus of communication with practitioners to maximize the utilization of the results.