Linking Remote Sensing and Dendrochronology to Quantify Climate‐Induced Shifts in High‐Elevation Forests Over Space and Time

Abstract

AbstractIt is well known that tree growth is strongly affected by climate at high elevations, but it is still unclear how climate variability influences the distribution of montane forest ecosystems, particularly tree line species. To advance knowledge in this field, we combined temporal (tree ring measurements) and spatial data (remotely sensed variables), to quantify how forests responded to climatic variability across altitudinal gradients in Central Mexico. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), tree‐ring chronologies, and site‐level climatic data were used in a vegetation trend analysis of greenness and browning and to reconstruct canopy vigor for the last century. Although a common ring width chronology was developed, we found significant site‐dependent forest growth response, where young trees (<100 years) exhibited heterogeneous growth trends, without an altitudinal pattern. However, mature trees (100–200 years) showed a common growth decline during the middle twentieth century, regardless of their altitude. Annual maximum NDVI anomalies did not show a general greening effect at high‐elevations. The forest showed both greening and browning zones denoting spatial variability in tree vigor. Furthermore, temperature from the previous year had a positive effect on both NDVI and ring width index but negative at beginning of the growing season. The significant relationship between winter‐spring NDVI (December to March) and ring width index (r = 0.64, p < 0.05), was useful to reconstruct the canopy vigor for the last 151 years. Thus, the greening effect derived from NDVI should be carefully interpreted as a direct forest growth increase. These results highlight the potential of integrating remotely sensed and dendrochronological methods to improve predictions of forest ecosystem responses.