Abstract
This work investigates the statistical linkage between upper‐tropospheric transient Rossby wave packets (RWPs) and lower‐tropospheric temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere during the period 1979–2015. Data from ERA‐Interim reanalyses are used for the diagnosis of RWP amplitude and temperature anomalies as well as the systematic examination of their connection. Areas of large RWP amplitude are found to be associated with an increased probability of lower‐tropospheric temperature extremes in many regions of the midlatitudes. Although a seasonal and inter‐regional variability is apparent, this link is always stronger than in an analysis using a circumglobal waviness metric based on Fourier wavenumber amplitudes.Further insight is gained by complementing the climatological results with an investigation of the two most severe recent heat waves in Europe, viz. during the 2003 and 2010 summers. Both events are found to be associated with conspicuous non‐circumglobal RWPs, but differences between the two events suggest that the mechanisms linking RWPs and temperature extremes are case‐dependent. The aforementioned results underscore the important role of upper‐troposphere dynamics and open up avenues for future research on heat waves and cold spells at both weather and climate time‐scales.
Highlights
Episodes with extreme temperatures near the Earth’s surface have profound impacts on natural ecosystems, human health, and the economy (e.g. Horton et al, 2016)
An event like the 2003 European heat wave, which at that time was unprecedented in recorded history, is likely to occur every other summer by the end of the 21st century (Schar et al, 2004; Russo et al, 2014)
This study focused on the linkage between Rossby wave packets and temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere
Summary
Episodes with extreme temperatures near the Earth’s surface have profound impacts on natural ecosystems, human health, and the economy (e.g. Horton et al, 2016). We complement our statistical analysis with case-studies of two prominent recent heat waves (2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia) in terms of their associated RWP signatures These studies will seek an illustration of the case-to-case variability (within the sample used in our statistical analysis) in aspects of the temperature extremes and the corresponding role of RWPs. The article is organized as follows.
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